The Springboks are the World Champions and the defending Castle Rugby Championship champions, but they are not the bookies’ favourites to go back to back as title winners for the first time in history.
The All Blacks, dominant for so long in the Rugby Championship, formerly the Tri-Nations, are favoured to win the title because they play the Springboks twice in New Zealand on successive Saturdays.
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South Africa, in 2024, had the advantage of playing the All Blacks twice in succession in South Africa and won both Test matches at Ellis Park in Johannesburg and Cape Town’s DHL Stadium.
The Boks, with five wins in six, claimed the title.
The Boks and the All Blacks are the two strongest squads in the four-nation annual competition, although the Pumas won three matches for the first time last season in beating the All Blacks in Wellington, New Zealand, the Wallabies at home in Argentina and edged the Springboks by a point in Argentina.
The draw, of who gets who where, determines so much relevant to the title odds, and it is understandable that the Kiwis have been favoured given the Springboks’ historical struggles against the All Blacks in New Zealand.
Rassie Erasmus’s Boks, since 2018, have proved the exception to their predecessors in matching the All Blacks in New Zealand and having dominance over them in the past two seasons, with four successive Test wins.
Just one win in New Zealand may prove sufficient to win South Africa the title, should they win the remaining four Tests against the Wallabies (two in South Africa) and the Pumas (one in South Africa and one at Twickenham’s Allianz Stadium). The Pumas moved their ‘home’ Test there because of commercial gain on match day.
The Springboks are sitting at 2.20 to win it again in 2025. New Zealand? Evens.
For the new punters: evens means you double your money — bet R100, you win R100 profit. 2.20 means you get a little more juice — bet R100, you win R120 profit. Same stake, bigger return.
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So why’s 2.20 a tasty number?
1. They’re the champs for a reason
Last year the Boks took the crown with the most complete squad in the competition. They won 11 of 13 Tests in 2024, and the two losses were by a single point in the final minute. This is a settled, brutal, and clinical team, who are also back to back Rugby World Cup Champions.
2. Ellis Park & Loftus factor
Altitude Tests in Johannesburg and Pretoria are nightmare assignments for travelling teams. The Boks play Australia at Ellis Park in the opening round on the 16th August and the Wallabies only win in 11 attempts at Ellis Park happened in 1963. The closest they have come since the game turned professional in 1996, was a 33-31 defeat in 2002.
3. Squad depth beats schedule
New Zealand are always dangerous — hence evens — but the Boks rotate better, manage injuries smarter, and have a stronger bench impact. That matters in a condensed competition.
4. Pressure flips the odds
The All Blacks have to live up to being favourites and there are still many unanswered questions since Scott Robertson took charge last season. The All Blacks were also unconvincing in beating a depleted French squad 3-0 in the July internationals.
Sporty Edge’s Real money example:
- Back the Boks at 2.20 with R1,000 = R1,200 profit if they win the tournament.
- Back NZ at evens with R1,000 = R1,000 profit if they win.
- Same risk, R200 more in your pocket for backing the champs
Photo by Anton Geyser/Gallo Images
