Betting Advice August 13, 2025

Betting on Springboks topping individual scoring lists is a risk

Photo by Anton Geyser/Gallo Images

The All Blacks are likely to feature more prominently than the Springboks in individual player points-scoring in the Castle Rugby Championship.

Squad rotation is a feature of Bok coach Rassie Erasmus’s style. He does not hesitate to make changes weekly, comfortably 10 at a time to run on XV. This is from one Test match to another.

Erasmus backs his squad depth.

In the July internationals, Erasmus made 10 changes to the starting XV for each one of the four matches, the first a non-international against the Barbarians in Cape Town and then three Test matches, two against Italy and one against Georgia.

KEO & ZELS: Relax, these Boks will still do it

In picking his first run on XV for the 2025 Rugby Championship, against Australia in Johannesburg, Erasmus made eight changes to the starters who thrashed Georgia 55-10.

The back three combination of a fullback, right and left wingers, and hookers tend to score a lot of tries in Test rugby, especially in the Rugby Championship.

The Boks have some of the best in the game in Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, and Arendse’s try-scoring strike rate commands respect.

Ordinarily both would start most Test matches, but this is no ordinary Boks coach (in Erasmus) and these are no ordinary days for the World Champion Springboks.

Kolbe tends to score the ones never to be forgotten. He is not as prolific as Arendse, but he pounces when the clutch moment demands it.

Canan Moodie is another with an impressive strike rate for the Boks, but he has alternated between right wing and centre, while right winger Edwill van der Merwe is unlikely to play more than 50 percent of the matches because of Kolbe’s presence.

New Zealand’s Will Jordan would be the most likely option for top try-scorer, if he plays every match. Jordan has been picked at fullback and wing for the All Blacks but it does not negatively influence his potency. He is averaging a try a Test.

READ: Why Boks are Value Bet to win 2025 Rugby Championship

Argentina, as a rugby nation, are on the improve but they are still incredibly inconsistent. They can be red hot one Saturday and horrible the next, and not make one change to their run on XV or match 23.

They lost a series at home 2-0 to an England squad missing 12 of their best players, who were in Australia with the British & Irish Lions.

Compare this to a season ago when they trounced the Wallabies in a record score.

Australia, ranked sixth on the eve of the 2025 Rugby Championship, won a ‘dead-rubber’ against the British & Irish Lions after the Lions had secured the series two-nil before losing in Sydney.

They have struggled in the Rugby Championship and last season won one match from six.

Their start in the toughest of all teams, with two matches against the Springboks in South Africa, the first at altitude in Johannesburg and the second in Cape Town a week later on the 23rd August.

The Wallabies historically don’t travel well to South Africa. Their win record in South Africa is 21 percent, which is the lowest winning return of any country they have visited. It is also the lowest win percentage of any rugby nation to play the Springboks in more than 20 Tests in South Africa.

Photo by Anton Geyser/Gallo Images

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