Shock, response and a chase for history
While the Wallabies shocked South Africa 38-22 at Ellis Park last week, Round 2 moves to Cape Town where the Springboks traditionally hold the edge. In Buenos Aires, Argentina hunt a first-ever home win over New Zealand.
South Africa v Australia, Cape Town Stadium
Outrights: Boks 1.17, Australia 4.80
Handicap: South Africa -13.5
This week marks the first meeting of the Springboks and Wallabies at Cape Town Stadium. Australia’s last win in the Mother City was in 1992 at Newlands. Since then, South Africa have beaten the Wallabies four times in Cape Town, in 1995 (27–18), 2008 (29–17), 2013 (28–8) and 2014 (28–10).
Handicap lens for punters: against a line of -13.5, those four Cape Town results split down the middle. The Boks would have covered in 2013 (+20) and 2014 (+18), but not in 1995 (+9) or 2008 (+12). The context is different after last week’s upset, yet the historical Cape Town margins suggest this number sits near the danger zone rather than the comfort zone.
The Wallabies upset the Boks last week, but Cape Town has been far less forgiving for Australia since 1992. Punters weighing -13.5 should balance the Boks’ strong Cape Town trend with the mixed record against this threshold.
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Argentina v New Zealand, Buenos Aires
Outrights: Argentina 3.70, New Zealand 1.26
Handicap: New Zealand -10.5
In 40 Tests between these teams, New Zealand have won 36, Argentina have 3 wins, and 1 draw. Argentina’s victories came in 2020 (Sydney), 2022 (Christchurch) and 2024 (Wellington). The latest meeting was in Cordoba last week where New Zealand won 41–24.
The All Blacks have never lost in Buenos Aires and Argentina’s best home result against New Zealand remains the 21–21 draw in 1985. Since the Rugby Championship era began, margins in BA have usually favoured NZ comfortably, but not always overwhelmingly: 39–22 (2013), 36–17 (2015), 35–17 (2017), and a much tighter 20–16 (2019).
Handicap lens for punters: with NZ -10.5, that 2019 four-point margin sits well inside the spread, while the other BA results listed would have cleared it. The Pumas’ three landmark wins since 2020 show they can break patterns, but none has come at home.
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Photo by Sydney Seshibedi/Gallo Images
