Liverpool – Value bets to consider
Liverpool enter the 2025–26 Premier League season as reigning champions, guided by Arne Slot who took charge in 2024 after a successful spell at Feyenoord. Slot’s first campaign saw Liverpool claim their 20th top-flight title, ending a six-year wait for the Premier League crown. His attacking style, paired with tactical flexibility, has revitalized the squad.
Summer transfers shift Liverpool’s attacking profile
The Reds have been busy this summer, making several key signings aimed at refreshing their frontline and creative options. The marquee arrivals include:
- Florian Wirtz – Signed from Bayer Leverkusen for around €130 million, Wirtz is known for his creativity and goal involvement in the Bundesliga, where he averaged over 0.3 goals and 0.4 assists per 90 minutes last season. His expected assists (xA) ranked in the Bundesliga’s top five.
- Hugo Ekitike – The French forward arrived from Frankfurt, adding depth to Liverpool’s striking options. He has experience in Ligue 1, the Bundesliga and European competitions and is expected to challenge for starts, especially in early league matches.
- Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez – Both full-backs bolster Liverpool’s width and attacking potential, increasing the likelihood of high-scoring home matches.
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Why this matters for bettors
Big signings alter Liverpool’s chance creation and finishing dynamics. Wirtz’s arrival is especially significant. His high volume of assists and chances created means Liverpool’s expected assists (xA) and overall attacking output could increase. This creates value in player-specific markets beyond simple win/lose bets.
Recommended markets for Liverpool:
- Player Assists – Florian Wirtz Over Season Total
Wirtz recorded double-digit assists last season in Germany and had a high xA. At Liverpool, playing closer to goal and with premium finishers like Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo, he should surpass a conservative assist threshold. If bookmakers offer a line around eight assists, backing the over looks smart.
- First-goal scorer in early matches – Hugo Ekitike (each-way)
Ekitike’s integration during pre-season and rotation risk among Liverpool’s forwards create an opportunity. Early league matches often feature squad rotation, increasing Ekitike’s chance to start and take early shots. An each-way bet on him scoring first in those fixtures carries value.
- Liverpool to retain Premier League title – long-term value
While bookmakers list Liverpool as favourites to defend their title, depth concerns, particularly in defensive rotation and injury management, mean odds will not be overly short. Liverpool finished 2024/25 strongly, but heavy summer spending also brings risk. Punters should monitor early-season pricing for favourable odds before the market tightens.
- Over 2.5 Goals in Liverpool home matches featuring new attackers
Slot’s attacking philosophy combined with new offensive recruits likely increases home game scoring. Matches against mid-table sides early in the season are key targets, as bookmakers sometimes underestimate tactical changes right after transfer windows. Using team news and match previews to pick the right fixtures enhances this bet’s value.
Markets to avoid:
Avoid backing Liverpool as heavy favourites in matches where odds are extremely short (e.g., odds below 1.30). These carry poor expected value despite high win probability.
Manchester City – Where value is hiding
Manchester City approach 2025–26 coming off a challenging previous season, finishing third after several years dominating the Premier League. Pep Guardiola remains at the helm, having signed a contract extension in 2024. City’s summer recruitment aims to reshape their midfield and attack after the departures of key figures like Kevin De Bruyne.
Key summer transfers and tactical changes
City brought in a large recruitment haul to refresh their squad, including:
- Rayan Cherki – The creative winger/attacking midfielder joins from Lyon. Cherki’s technical ability and versatility make him a candidate for significant starts, particularly as Guardiola experiments with formations.
- Tijjani Reijnders and James Trafford – New midfield and goalkeeping additions deepen the squad.
City’s shift in midfield identity and squad rotation under Guardiola means betting on player-specific markets and match props could be especially profitable early in the season, before bookmakers fully adjust odds.
Why this matters for bettors
City’s squad overhaul and Guardiola’s rotation policy increase variance in outcomes. Player prop bets like minutes played, shots on target, or goal involvement, along with match props such as Both Teams To Score (BTTS), offer punters value, particularly in early-season fixtures.
Recommended markets for Manchester City:
- Erling Haaland anytime scorer / over season goals
Haaland remains City’s focal point in attack. Despite a slight dip last season, his goal-scoring record at City is elite, with an average of 0.85 goals per game across all competitions since his arrival. Comparing bookmaker season goal lines with Haaland’s historical output can reveal value. Betting selectively on anytime scorer markets in key matches can provide steady returns.
- Player minutes/starts market – Rayan Cherki to start x matches
Cherki’s integration into the squad and Guardiola’s rotation habits mean early market lines on his number of starts can fluctuate. If a bookmaker’s line is below expectations based on rotation history and Cherki’s pre-season involvement, there’s value in backing the over.
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS) in City away games against top-6 opponents
City conceded more goals than usual last season, partly due to a midfield transition and injuries to key players like Rodri. Away games against top-tier clubs often see open play and BTTS opportunities. Early season pricing can offer generous odds on BTTS in these fixtures, especially if City’s defensive line-up is unsettled.
- Smaller, targeted accumulators over large multiples
Given City’s squad turnover and potential for late transfers, punters should favour smaller multiples (2-3 legs). Combining Haaland anytime scorer bets with a Cherki starts or BTTS pick preserves value and reduces exposure to unpredictable rotation or form dips.
Final thoughts
Both Liverpool and Manchester City offer distinct betting value for the 2025–26 Premier League season when approaching markets with nuance:
- Liverpool’s major signings reshape their attacking threats, creating angles in player assists and goals markets beyond simple match results.
- Manchester City’s transition phase under Guardiola invites exploration of player prop bets and BTTS markets, especially early in the campaign.
Successful betting this season depends on monitoring team news, rotation patterns, and tactical shifts to exploit bookmakers’ slow adjustments.
Photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images
