As the 2025–26 Premier League season nears, Liverpool stand as favourites to keep their title, followed by Arsenal and Manchester City. However, while Liverpool’s status is well earned, Manchester City currently offer better betting value.
Liverpool – Champions and market favourites
Liverpool won their 20th English top-flight title last season, finishing comfortably ahead of Arsenal under Arne Slot. Slot joined Liverpool in 2024 after success at Feyenoord and quickly transformed the team with a more flexible and pragmatic playstyle.
Liverpool’s summer signings back up their favourite tag. They brought in Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen (around €130 million), Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt, and full-backs Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez. These signings add new attacking options, avenues for creativity and reduce the goal burden on Mohamed Salah.
Bookmakers currently list Liverpool’s odds to win the Premier League at about 2.75, implying roughly a 36% chance of defending the title.
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Manchester City – Better value at longer odds
Manchester City finished third last season but remain strong contenders. Their current odds to win are around 4.50. They sit behind 2024/25 runners-up Arsenal, who have odds near 3.50.
Why back Manchester City for better value?
City went through a transition last season after an ageing squad had run out of steam and losing Ballon d’Or Rodri to injury. This summer, they signed young players such as Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders to rebuild the midfield and attack, while keeping Erling Haaland leading the line.
Pep Guardiola’s track record shows he can rebuild and win. After a dip in form in 2019/20, he won four consecutive Premier League titles, including a treble in the following years. Guardiola has also never lost back-to-back titles with the same club in his managerial career. That experience isn’t fully reflected in the current odds.
On the other hand, Liverpool’s heavy spending comes with risks. Integrating several new players and managing defensive rotations could create inconsistency. This lowers the certainty behind their favourite status, making their odds less appealing from a value betting perspective.
Betting Takeaway
Liverpool offers a safer bet, but the odds at 2.75 mean lower returns on stakes. Manchester City’s odds at 4.50 present a better risk-to-reward ratio, especially for bettors who believe Guardiola will guide City back to the top.
For punters looking for value, backing City outright or combining City-related bets like Erling Haaland anytime scorer markets may offer better returns than simply backing Liverpool to repeat.
Photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images/Getty Images For The Premier League
